Honolulu Real Estate Statistics, An Interpretation
June 2nd, 2009 categories: For Buyers, For Sellers, The Market
This month’s Honolulu Board of Realtors statistical report has 18 pages of very interesting information. Since the report was released yesterday afternoon, Honolulu’s local on-line newspapers (Honolulu Advertiser & Honolulu Star Bulletin) have yet to comment. If I have to guess, I bet that they will be negative about the market! Surface numbers such as median prices (down) and year on year sales comparisons (down 43.2%), look negative. However, if you dig into the report, there are some encouraging numbers. Here are five (5) that caught my eye.
1. 1,739 single family homes available for sale. This is a low number and it is comparable to January of 2007, May of 2006, November of 2005, late 2004 and early 2003. Low numbers of houses for sale drive the Honolulu condominium market, because as fewer homes are available interest in condo’s rise. Add into the mix the idea that our summer months generally see the most sales in a given year and it is easy to predict that there will be a positive bump in the market. As for the market strengthening over the long term…only time will tell.
2. Low median days on market. We ended May with homes that sold going to contract in 49 days and condos did it in 52 days. Historically, if the median number of days from listing a property for sale to accepting a purchase contract is 60 days or less, then the market favors sellers. These numbers tell me that the market is favoring well-priced sellers.
3. Months of remaining inventory. There are 9.2 months of single-family (SFR) inventory and 9.5 months of condominium inventory. This represents the 3rd consecutive month that the amount of remaining inventory has dropped (In February there were 15.8 month of inventory for both SFR’s and condos). This is a good number and as it draws closer to 6 months, you will see the market begin to favor sellers and not buyers.
4. 488 closed houses and condos. This is the 5th consecutive month that the number of properties that sold was greater than the previous month. The growing number of sales is probably one of the main reasons that Honolulu’s inventory has shrunk.
5. Median prices. The median price of sold homes is $550,000 and condominiums are at $305,000. This number is good for sellers and buyers! For most sellers that have owned on Oahu for more than five years, these prices represent a significant increase. For buyers, the prices represent an opportunity to purchase at a discount from the highs of $685,000 and $337,300.
In summary, it is difficult to tell whether these numbers indicate a long-term shift in the real estate market. However, they are in the right range for a short-term bump that may translate to an ongoing healthy market.
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It’s good to see balance to the monthly statistics provided – the media often like to harp on the negative indicators, but, as always, there are good and bad sides to everything. This is a great time for many people to buy and I am seeing more and more people taking advantage of the (slightly) lower prices and low interest rates to make a move.
Aloha Keahi,
Good stuff, I agree the next 3-6 months should be healthy, like this new blog you got. Careful at this rate we’ll be having virtual meetings every month. I might be calling you, Thursday for a Saturday show, about #429 at the “Palms”. Aloha, Drew
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