More Analysis Of The Honolulu Real Estate Stats
December 2nd, 2009 categories: For Buyers, For Sellers
I haven’t seen anything posted by the Honolulu Advertiser or Honolulu Star Bulletin regarding the recently released November Honolulu Board of Realtors statistical report, however, it is going to be fun to read how they spin the information. From my perspective, it is the best report that I have seen in over a year. Other than a miniscule drop in the median sales price of houses, all of these numbers look great!
Below is a summary of the salient statistics.
Total Sales
11/08-371 11/09-656 (+76.8%)
Traditionally, Novembers experience lower volumes that other months, but the year on year increase of 76.8% is really good.
Median Prices
11/08 Houses-$594,500 11/09 Houses-$590,000 (-.8%)
11/08 Condos-$316,200 11/09 Condos-$320,000 (+1.2%)
Note that median condo prices actually increased by 1.2% another very good bit of information.
Median Number Of Days On Market
11/08 Houses-57 days 11/09 Houses-42 days (-26.3%)
11/08 Condos-68 days 11/09 Condos-32 days (-52.9%)
In the case of median days on market, a negative number is good news. Fewer selling days shows market interest and strength. Normally, a market time of less than 60 days shows a market that is favoring sellers.
Inventory Of Active Residential Listings
11/08 Houses-2,096 11/09 Houses-1,199 (-42.8%)
11/08 Condos-2,655 11/09 Condos-1,749 (-34.1%)
These numbers reflect major drops in both home and condo inventory. As I said in last night’s post, the Honolulu home inventory has not been this low since August 2005. The condo inventory is starting to get to the low side too.
Months Of Remaining Inventory
11/08 Houses-8.6 months 11/09 Houses-4.8 months (-44.2%)
11/08 Condos-8.4 months 11/09 Condos-4.3 months (-44.8%)
This stat is amazing. Realtors believe that a number of less than 6 months of remaining inventory points toward a sellers market. Our current inventory levels are low and, if they hold, they could be pointing to a shift in the market.
Here is the question looming in my mind, “With all of the positive numbers, why doesn’t the market seem like it is much stronger?” Here are a few possible factors.
1. The local and national economies need to be perceived as more stable. Once this occurs, the market could turn.
2. Even though we have low interest rates, it has become more difficult to get a loan to purchase home. This lending difficulty could be depressing the market. If lenders loosen lending guidelines, then the market could take off too.
3. The debate over health care. I believe many people are afraid of what may happen if our health care is nationalized and this could be keeping consumer optimism down. If health were to be killed, we may see the market respond positively.
With all of this in mind, if you are a buyer, it is a terrific time to buy! If you are a seller, low levels of inventory favor sellers and now may be a good time to sell!
If you would like to discuss your real estate needs, feel free to call me at 808-737-2093 or toll free at 877-737-2093. You can email me at keahi@lava.net.
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All in all great Stats. Let’s hope that it continues to be good and get better early in 2010. Lucky we live Hawaii.